Nine cities entered the zone of risk of a "bubble" in the residential real estate market
Nine cities have entered the zone of risk of formation of a "bubble" in the residential real estate market. Among them were Khabarovsk, Ufa, Yekaterinburg, Rostov-on-Don, Ryazan, Mytishchi, Vladivostok, Krasnodar and Tyumen. This conclusion was reached by analysts of IA "Movement.ru" together with analysts of the company DEVISION, who conducted a study of the balance of the market of new buildings in 20 cities with the volume of current construction of at least one million square meters of housing as of December 2024. Izvestia" got acquainted with the results of the study on January 17.
Thus, the gross urban product (GUP - an indicator of the market value of goods and services produced in all sectors of the economy in the city for the year) was assessed for each municipality, the value of which in turn was compared with the volume of current construction. To assess the balance was calculated indicator "GWP per 1 square meter of housing under construction", the value of GWP divided by the volume of current construction.
It is specified that the obtained value shows how many goods, services and other economic benefits created by the city in rubles fall on 1 square meter of housing under construction. This indicator characterizes how comfortable and prosperous can be the life of people who will live in the entire volume of housing under construction in a certain city, compared to another municipality, according to the experts' material.
The first four places are occupied by cities with balanced volumes of the real estate market and gross urban product: Moscow, St. Petersburg, Kazan and Samara. The economy of these cities to a greater extent than in other cities, provides the current volume of construction. At the same time, cities with large volumes of construction, but a relatively low GPP indicator, were in the risk zone: Khabarovsk, Ufa, Yekaterinburg, Rostov-on-Don, Ryazan, Mytishchi, Vladivostok, Krasnodar, and Tyumen.
"The low indicator of "GNP per sq. m." testifies to the overheating of the construction market, the growth of which is not kept up with other sectors of the urban economy, that is, in fact, this growth is not provided with the appropriate resources, firstly for the formation of effective demand, including non-speculative, and secondly for the formation of quality life in the houses under construction - at least comparable to the current level. On such markets there is a risk of formation of market "bubble", - analysts explained.
Earlier, on January 10, the experts of the company "Metrium" informed "Izvestia" about the reduction of the rate of output of new development projects in Moscow. So, in 2024, developers in Moscow began the realization of 67 projects of new buildings. Compared to 2023, the figure has decreased by 5.6%.